China's economy grew 4.5% in the third quarter, beating forecasts, as property investment kept sliding

As of 4:41 a.m. ET, Monday, Oct. 19, 2026

China's economy grew 4.5% year on year in the third quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday in Beijing (Sunday night ET). That was up from 4.3% in the second quarter.

Economists in a Reuters poll had forecast 4.4% growth for July-September. Reuters described the second-quarter figure as a more-than-three-year low.

Compared with the previous quarter, gross domestic product grew 1.2%, the bureau said. That was up from 0.9% in April-June and above the poll's 1.1% forecast.

For the first three quarters of 2026, GDP reached 107,107.1 billion yuan, up 4.6% from a year earlier at constant prices. By quarter, growth was 5.0% in the first quarter, 4.3% in the second and 4.5% in the third.

Beijing's full-year growth target is 4.5% to 5%.

September data

Industrial output at large firms rose 5.5% year on year in September, up from 5.2% growth in August, the bureau said. That matched the Reuters poll forecast.

Retail sales of consumer goods rose 1.1% year on year in September, 0.7 percentage point faster than in August. Economists in the Reuters poll had expected 0.6% growth.

The urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2% in September, down 0.1 percentage point from August.

Consumer prices rose 0.9% year on year in September, and producer prices rose 5.0%.

Investment and property

Fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% year on year in January-September, the same pace of decline as in the first eight months. The Reuters poll had forecast a 7.3% drop.

Investment in real estate development fell 20.6%, and private investment fell 10.4%. Floor space of new commercial buildings sold fell 13.2%, and sales of new commercial buildings by value fell 13.9%.

Infrastructure investment fell 4.2%, and manufacturing investment fell 2.1%. Investment in high-tech industries rose 4.9%.

Trade and output

Goods exports rose 16.4% in yuan terms in the first three quarters, and imports rose 22.3%. In September alone, exports rose 29.6% in yuan terms, according to customs data cited by the bureau.

Value added in high-tech manufacturing grew 14.3% in the first nine months, and equipment manufacturing grew 10.2%.

What the bureau said

The bureau said the economy "sustained steady development against pressure," but cautioned that "the international environment is complex and volatile, the issue of insufficient domestic demand remains prominent, and the foundation for steady economic growth still needs to be consolidated". It said authorities would "step up efforts to boost domestic demand".

Reuters said the stronger-than-expected reading eases pressure on policymakers to deliver more aggressive stimulus to meet the annual target. Authorities recently expanded support for home buyers and unveiled measures to steer cheaper credit into sectors including infrastructure and technology, but have refrained from releasing large-scale stimulus, Reuters reported.

Before the release, Reuters reported that strong, AI-fuelled exports and factory output were masking weak consumer spending and private investment during a prolonged property slump. Economists polled by Reuters forecast growth of 4.5% in the fourth quarter and 4.5% for the full year, easing to 4.4% in 2027.