Cooper–Whatley poll update: three recent surveys and North Carolina's first five days of early voting

As of 9:12 a.m. ET, Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2026

Three recent surveys of North Carolina's U.S. Senate race each found more likely voters backing Democrat Roy Cooper than Republican Michael Whatley: 54% to 40% in a SurveyUSA poll for WRAL-TV and WSOC-TV, 52% to 39% in the Elon University Poll and 48.8% to 40.9% in a Trafalgar Group survey. All three were in the field by Oct. 11, before in-person early voting began on Oct. 15. GROKsiNEWS.com found no public poll of the race with field dates after Oct. 11 as of this report.

The North Carolina State Board of Elections' absentee files, last updated at 4:41 a.m. and 5:19 a.m. ET Tuesday and unchanged when GROKsiNEWS.com checked at 8:00 a.m. ET, list 733,299 accepted ballots for the Nov. 3 general election, including 689,133 cast at early-voting sites.

GROKsiNEWS.com last covered the race on Oct. 12 and reported first-day early-voting figures on Oct. 15.

The polls, side by side

SurveyUSA for WRAL-TV and WSOC-TV. Fielded Oct. 7–11. SurveyUSA interviewed 900 North Carolina adults online, using a nonprobability sample of panelists from Lucid Holdings, according to SurveyUSA's report. Of those, 778 were registered to vote, and 643 were judged likely to vote or had already voted. Among those 643 likely voters, Cooper had 54% and Whatley 40%; 5% were undecided and 1% chose another candidate. SurveyUSA reported a credibility interval of plus or minus 5 percentage points for likely voters. SurveyUSA also found that 37% of registered voters approved of President Donald Trump's job performance and 60% disapproved.

Elon University Poll. Fielded Sept. 29–Oct. 8 and released Tuesday, Oct. 20. YouGov fielded the online survey for Elon. It interviewed 1,038 North Carolina adults and matched them down to a sample of 800, according to Elon, which says the poll uses a non-probability sample. Among 561 likely voters, Cooper had 52% and Whatley 39%. Six percent were undecided, and 3% chose Libertarian Shannon Bray, Green Party candidate Michael Dublin or someone else. Elon reported a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 points for likely voters and 4.03 points for all adults. When undecided voters were asked to choose, the result was Cooper 54% and Whatley 43%, according to Elon.

The Trafalgar Group. Fielded Oct. 8–10 among 1,091 likely general-election voters. Trafalgar reported a 2.9-point margin of error at 95% confidence and a 7.3% response rate. Cooper had 48.8%, Whatley 40.9%, Dublin 2.0% and Bray 1.4%; 6.9% were undecided. The report does not say how this survey's interviews were conducted. Trafalgar's methodology page says the firm uses a mix of six methods, including live callers, text messages, emails and online opt-in survey platforms.

Elon's director, Jason Husser, said in the poll's release that three findings highlight "potential for Cooper's lead to contract somewhat between now and Election Day." One, he said, is that Cooper's lead among all registered voters is smaller than among likely voters. Elon's topline shows Cooper with 47% and Whatley with 38% among registered voters.

WRAL reported that Michael Bitzer, a Catawba College political scientist, had a Sept. 30 poll of his own showing Cooper with a 12-point lead.

What the campaigns say

"We are confident this race will continue to tighten, and Michael Whatley will win in November," Whatley spokesman DJ Griffin told WRAL in a written statement. He said Whatley had held nearly 400 campaign events.

Cooper campaign manager Jeff Allen told WRAL that "North Carolina is a 50-50 state" and that the campaign is "building a campaign to earn every vote."

Early voting: first five days

The State Board of Elections' statewide absentee summary, last updated at 4:41 a.m. ET Oct. 20, counts 733,299 ballots. Of those, 689,133 were cast in person at early-voting sites. The remaining 44,166 were civilian, overseas and military mail ballots.

In the board's ballot-level file, last updated at 5:19 a.m. ET Oct. 20, the 733,299 are ballots marked accepted, including mail ballots marked accepted with an exception and accepted after a cure. Accepted in-person early votes by date are:

Thursday, Oct. 15: 203,243. Friday, Oct. 16: 197,692. Saturday, Oct. 17: 61,737. Sunday, Oct. 18: 24,542. Monday, Oct. 19: 201,918.

The file also lists one in-person ballot dated Oct. 14.

By voter registration, the state's summary shows 327,905 ballots from registered Democrats (44.7%), 251,891 from unaffiliated voters (34.4%), 151,945 from Republicans (20.7%), 1,324 from Libertarians and 234 from Green Party voters. Party registration does not show how anyone voted.

The board's files also show mail ballots in other statuses, including 374 marked as pending cure.

Early voting continues through 3 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 31, GROKsiNEWS.com reported on Oct. 15. Election Day is Nov. 3.