Prediction markets favor Don Davis over Laurie Buckhout in NC-01 on election eve

As of 5:54 p.m. ET, Monday, Nov. 2, 2026

Betting markets heavily favor Rep. Don Davis, the Democratic incumbent, to hold North Carolina's 1st Congressional District against Republican Laurie Buckhout in Tuesday's election.

As of about 5:52 p.m. ET Monday, the two largest real-money markets priced a Davis or Democratic win at about 87% to 88%. Buckhout or the Republican was priced at about 13% to 14%.

What the markets show

On Kalshi, which lists the candidates by name, a Davis contract last traded at 87 cents, with bids at 86 cents and asks at 87 cents. A Buckhout contract last traded at 14 cents. Each contract pays $1 if that candidate wins. Kalshi's API shows about 414,000 Davis contracts and about 275,000 Buckhout contracts traded.

Polymarket's NC-01 market priced a Davis win at about 87.5 cents and a Buckhout win at about 13 cents. Total trading volume was about $83,000.

PredictIt, which lists the race by party, showed a much messier picture. Its Democratic contract last traded at 75 cents but cost 85 cents to buy. Its Republican contract last traded at 34 cents but cost 48 cents to buy. The two last-trade prices add up to more than $1, a sign of thin or stale trading.

Manifold, a site that uses play money rather than real cash, put the Democrat at 86% and the Republican at 14%.

Markets are not polls

A prediction market price is not a survey of voters. It reflects the bets of people who chose to trade, weighted by how much money they put in. A price of 86 cents roughly means traders as a group put the chance of that outcome near 86%, before fees and spreads.

The platforms also define their contracts differently. Kalshi's contracts name the candidates. PredictIt's contracts are by party. Manifold's prices involve no real money. None of the prices guarantees a result.

The case for and against reading much into it

Supporters of market forecasts can point to agreement. Kalshi and Polymarket land within about two points of each other, and both show tight one-cent gaps between buyers and sellers. Kalshi's volume in this race is substantial.

Skeptics can point to the limits. Polymarket's volume in the race is modest. PredictIt's prices are thin and inconsistent. Traders are not a representative sample of voters, and markets have missed House races before.