October inflation data due this week after a hot jobs report

As of 9:41 p.m. ET, Monday, Nov. 9, 2026

Two inflation reports this week will show how fast prices rose in October. The Consumer Price Index comes out Tuesday, Nov. 10, at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the Producer Price Index follows Friday, Nov. 13, at 8:30 a.m. ET, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics release calendar. Wednesday is the Veterans Day federal holiday, the calendar shows.

What forecasters expect

Economists expect consumer prices rose 0.24% in October from September, according to FactSet consensus estimates cited by Morningstar. They see core prices, which exclude food and energy, up 0.2%. A Bloomberg survey of economists put the median forecast at 0.3% for the headline index and 0.2% for core, Bloomberg reported.

Analysts told Morningstar that most of the expected slowdown comes from gasoline, which rose more slowly than in the two previous months, along with falling prices for new and used cars. UBS analysts estimated that energy added 0.39 percentage point to the overall index in September but only about 0.04 point in October, Morningstar reported.

Tuesday's report will not include an annual inflation rate for October, Morningstar and Bloomberg reported, because of a data gap from the government shutdown last year, when the October 2025 CPI release was skipped.

September's jump

Consumer prices rose 0.6% in September after a 0.4% rise in August, the BLS reported Oct. 14. The gasoline index jumped 9.1% and accounted for more than half of the monthly increase. Prices were up 3.7% from a year earlier, and core prices rose 2.6%.

Wholesale prices rose faster. The Producer Price Index for final demand climbed 1.3% in September, its biggest monthly gain since March 2022, and was up 6.3% from a year earlier, the BLS said.

Jobs and the Fed

The inflation data follows an unexpectedly strong October jobs report, Morningstar reported. Employers added 165,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.1%, the BLS said Friday. Average hourly earnings rose 3.1% over the past year, according to the BLS, and revisions added 84,000 jobs to August and September combined.

"There are currently no inflationary pressures emanating from the labor market," Preston Caldwell, Morningstar's chief U.S. economist, told Morningstar, citing the 3.1% wage growth.

The October CPI is the last before the Federal Reserve meets in December, Bloomberg reported. Bond futures showed about an 80% chance of a quarter-point rate hike at that meeting, according to CME FedWatch data cited by Morningstar. "With inflation sticky above the target and the labor market stable, we think another hike will be warranted in December," Christopher Hodge, chief U.S. economist at Natixis, wrote, according to Morningstar.