Hot PPI follows hot CPI: wholesale prices up 6.3% over the year

Chart: 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (all items, not seasonally adjusted, series CUUR0000SA0) and the Producer Price Index for final demand (not seasonally adjusted, series WPUFD4), January 2022 to September 2026. 12-month change = (index in month ÷ index in same month a year earlier − 1) × 100, rounded to one decimal. Index levels were retrieved from the BLS public data API (v1, POST, startyear 2021, endyear 2026) on 15 October 2026. September 2026 PPI is preliminary. BLS published no CPI index for October 2025, so the CPI line has a gap there; nothing is interpolated.

Wholesale prices: the PPI report

The PPI for final demand rose 1.3% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, BLS reported on 15 October. On an unadjusted basis, it was up 6.3% for the 12 months ended in September. BLS said the monthly increase was the largest since a 1.7% rise in March 2022, and the 12-month increase the largest since 6.4% in December 2022.

Goods led the increase:

• Final demand goods: up 2.6%.
• Energy: up 10.8%.
• Gasoline: up 20.3% in the month.
• Final demand services: up 0.8%.

A narrower measure, final demand less foods, energy and trade services, rose 0.5% in September and 5.0% over 12 months, per BLS.

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected a monthly increase of about 0.6%.

Consumer prices: the CPI report

The CPI-U rose 0.6% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis and 3.7% over the past 12 months before seasonal adjustment, BLS reported on 14 October. The index stood at 336.940 (1982–84 = 100).

Excluding food and energy, the CPI rose 0.3% in the month and 2.6% over the year. The energy index rose 5.2% in September and 20.4% over 12 months. Gasoline rose 9.1% in the month and 34.2% over the year, according to BLS.

The Fed question

After the CPI report, market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase in October jumped. They then eased after Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly signaled a wait-and-see approach, Reuters reported.

The Wall Street Journal described the September PPI as wholesale inflation reaching a four-year high. Fed officials' reported comments addressed the CPI report, not the PPI report specifically.

Will wholesale prices reach consumers?

Producer-level gasoline increases have already appeared in consumer gasoline prices, BLS data show. But the two indexes are built differently, BLS notes. The CPI includes owners' equivalent rent, which the PPI does not. The PPI excludes imports and taxes, and trade margins behave differently in each.

What's next

The two reports put 12-month consumer inflation at 3.7% and producer inflation at 6.3%, both led by energy. Coming BLS monthly releases will show whether producer-level increases keep feeding into consumer prices.