Trump's announced Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire unravels as strikes resume

Ukraine resumed long-range strikes on Russian oil facilities on Thursday, Oct. 15, hitting a refinery in the Ryazan region. Days earlier, President Donald Trump had announced an "energy ceasefire" that Russia never publicly confirmed. Russia, meanwhile, kept up large-scale drone attacks on Ukraine. "We're done," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the Financial Times, according to the BBC, the Guardian and NBC News, saying Kyiv's pause on refinery strikes was over.

The announcement

On Oct. 11, Trump posted on Truth Social: "Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE… Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!". Russia did not publicly confirm that it had agreed, and the Kremlin had dismissed a sectoral energy truce on Oct. 8, according to the BBC and earlier wire reports. Zelenskyy initially called the announcement "news for me." He said Ukraine would comply if Russia did, provided the halt covered Ukraine's own energy grid.

A day earlier, on Oct. 10, Trump had said Zelenskyy "better damn well stop" hitting refineries and that it was "time for Ukraine to get a new president," the BBC and Axios reported.

The Oct. 15 strikes

Zelenskyy told the FT that Ukraine had restricted refinery attacks for about three days. On Oct. 15, Ukraine struck the Ryazan refinery, setting off a fire, according to the Wall Street Journal, the Guardian and NBC News.

Russia's defence ministry said it intercepted four missiles and dozens of drones aimed at the Ryazan area, and that falling debris caused a fire. President Vladimir Putin said there was "no significant damage," according to the BBC. Russian regional officials put the attack at 69 drones and four Flamingo cruise missiles, the Guardian reported.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine also struck an airfield in Russia's Voronezh region, at Borisoglebsk, destroying four Su-34 jets and damaging two. The Guardian reported the claim alongside a satellite photo. That damage has not been independently assessed.

Russian attacks on Ukraine

According to Zelenskyy, Russia launched more than 850 drones at Ukraine, and at least 13 people were killed across the country on Wednesday, Oct. 14. Local officials in the Kirovohrad region reported about 360 drones and three deaths there. Separately, Romania's President Nicușor Dan said two Russian drones violated Romanian airspace and struck two chemical tankers, with at least seven sailors missing.

The dispute with Washington

Zelenskyy said Ukraine's defensive capabilities had been "artificially restricted," referring to Starlink and Starshield access. He told the FT, "It was not a technical problem, it was the will". Trump denied halting intelligence sharing, the BBC reported. Elon Musk denied that SpaceX had throttled service and said the systems were controlled by the U.S. government. He separately posted "Time for Zelensky to go," according to the Guardian.

British Defence Secretary Wes Streeting said U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had assured him access was restored; the cause remained unclear. A bipartisan group of U.S. senators wrote to the Pentagon demanding an investigation into the disruptions, the Guardian reported, citing the New York Times. Zelenskyy told Piers Morgan he felt Ukraine was "losing a strong partner".

Earlier, on Oct. 9, the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued General License 135, a temporary license for Russian-origin diesel transactions through April 7, 2027. It is a limited license, not a lifting of sanctions.

What's unknown

The White House has not formally declared the ceasefire over. "Collapse" describes the resumption of strikes by both sides. No official U.S. document defining the ceasefire's scope has been published.