Sabato's Crystal Ball shifts five Senate ratings, moving Kansas to Toss-up

The five changes

The Crystal Ball's 14 October post, "Five Senate Rating Changes as Close Battle for Majority Control Rages," by J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik, lists these moves. They also appear in the 2026 rating-changes log.

| Race | Old rating | New rating | Direction | |---|---|---|---| | Kansas: Roger Marshall (R) vs. Adam Hamilton (D) | Leans R | Toss-up | Toward D | | Minnesota (open; Smith): Peggy Flanagan (D) vs. Michele Tafoya (R) | Likely D | Leans D | Toward R | | Mississippi: Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) | Safe R | Likely R | Toward D | | Nebraska: Pete Ricketts (R) | Likely R | Leans R | Toward D | | New Hampshire (open; Shaheen) | Leans D | Likely D | Toward D |

After the update, the Crystal Ball's Senate summary showed 49 seats at least Leaning Democratic, 46 at least Leaning Republican and 5 Toss-ups.

The math, as the Crystal Ball describes it

The newsletter wrote that Republicans now need four of the five Toss-ups to hold the Senate, while Democrats need two. It added that four of the five Toss-ups are states President Trump carried by double digits. "It shouldn't surprise anyone if Republicans hold on" in all but Maine, it wrote.

Kansas

The Crystal Ball said it was "hesitant" to make the Kansas move. It wrote that "a full-on Republican rescue operation appears underway for Marshall". It cited two signs of that effort:

• an "eight-figure investment" by the Senate Leadership Fund;
• the dispatch of GOP operative Chris Grant to aid the campaign.

It compared the situation to 2014, when then-Sen. Pat Roberts was helped to hold off independent Greg Orman. The newsletter described Hamilton as a pastor who is "either tied or even sometimes leading" Marshall in public polling. It also noted that Libertarian David Graham is on the ballot. "We are ultimately skeptical of a Democrat winning a Senate race in Kansas," the newsletter wrote.

The Hill also reported the Kansas change on 14 October. MS NOW's own ratings place Kansas at Lean Republican, one notch less competitive than the Crystal Ball, and Minnesota at Lean Democratic.

The other moves

• Minnesota: The Crystal Ball cited Flanagan's "underwhelming" polling. That included a Mason-Dixon poll showing her ahead of Tafoya 47% to 43%.
• New Hampshire: The newsletter said Rep. Chris Pappas (D) "has seemed to find his footing" against former Sen. John Sununu (R).
• Nebraska: It cited polling ranging from a 3-point Ricketts lead to a tie against independent Dan Osborn.
• Mississippi: It called the move "a nod to the possibility" of Democratic gains in poorer, redder states.

The change log also records 6 October moves: Alaska, from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, and South Carolina, from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.

What's next

Election Day is less than three weeks away, the Crystal Ball noted. It said its final Kansas rating may reflect its skepticism of a Democratic win there. Ratings describe how competitive a race looks. They are not forecasts of vote share.