UK Cyber Agency Warns AI-Powered Attack on Critical Infrastructure Is Likely by 2028

As of 8:42 a.m. ET, Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026

Britain's top cyber security agency warned Tuesday that artificial intelligence will make cyberattacks faster, cheaper and larger in scale. It said an AI-powered ransomware attack on the country's critical infrastructure is likely within about two years.

"It is also highly likely that between now and 2028, AI-powered malware will have been used in a ransomware attack on UK CNI," the National Cyber Security Centre said in its Annual Review 2026, using its shorthand for critical national infrastructure. The report covers the 12 months to Aug. 31.

The agency also said that by 2028, "it is highly likely China, Russia, and other nation states will routinely use AI cyber to achieve their geopolitical goals." It said the U.K. would face "an increase in scale and speed of sophisticated cyber attacks."

'AI did not create these weaknesses'

NCSC chief executive Richard Horne said the bigger problem is old and poorly maintained technology, not AI itself. "AI makes cyber attacks easier, faster and cheaper to execute, and at greater scale," he wrote in the report's foreword. "But AI did not create these cyber security weaknesses; it revealed them."

"The UK's cyber resilience is not yet where it should be," Horne wrote. "The cyber threat has increased faster than our defensive capabilities, leaving too many organisations vulnerable to attacks that could – and should – be prevented."

Launching the report in London, Horne said the country faces "a real prospect of an unprecedented rise in the number of cyber incidents" in the coming months. "That is not because AI has invented new ways to attack us," he said. "It is because vulnerabilities that have been tolerated for far too long can now be discovered and exploited, at a scale and pace that was once unimaginable."

He blamed decades of "tech on the cheap," with end-of-life systems kept running and upgrades put off. He urged business leaders to act now.

China and Russia

The review called China's activity "the most sophisticated and sustained cyber challenge facing the UK." Horne said China "highly likely has the intent and is best positioned to use AI for operations against our critical national infrastructure."

The report said Russia "currently represents the most audacious cyber threat to the UK." It cited a July advisory on hackers from Russia's FSB intelligence service who exploited vulnerable routers to target critical infrastructure networks. It also said Iran-linked groups continue to show how cyber operations can cause "indiscriminate disruption at scale."

The cost

Citing U.K. government research, the NCSC said malicious cyber activity costs British organizations an estimated £14.7 billion a year, or nearly $20 billion, as the AP reported. As an example, the report cited the 2025 attack on Jaguar Land Rover. It said the carmaker reported about £196 million in direct costs and that the attack contributed to weaker U.K. economic growth that quarter.

Horne also cast AI as a tool for defenders. He said it is helping find and fix vulnerabilities faster than ever, and pointed to a planned National Exposure and Real-Time Vulnerability Centre that will use AI to spot weaknesses across critical infrastructure. He also cited the Cyber Security and Resilience Bill, which he said would set a minimum level of resilience for critical national infrastructure.